China has overtaken Taiwan as as ASML’s biggest customer with China accounting for 46% of ASML’s sales in Q3 – up from 24% in Q2 – and Taiwan taking 24% of ASML’s Q3 sales compared to 34% in Q2.

“All in all, on the macro front it’s quite dynamic and quite challenging,” says ASML CFO Roger Dassen, “if you then specifically look into the semiconductor industry, I think it’s plain to say that our customers are really going through the cycle trough.”

Earlier this week the US announced further restrictions on the export of chip-making tools to  China which, says ASML, will hit its sales. However it doesn’t expect the restrictions to have a material impact on its financial outlook for the year or in the longer term with 2024 revenues expected to be  flat with 2023.

“We believe 2024 is going to be a pivotal year in preparing us for what we think will be very significant growth in 2025,” said Dassen.

Q4 revenue is forecast at €6.7-7.1 billion compared to Q3’s €6.7 billion.