Over the past nine years, the global investment in robotaxis, robot shuttles, and robot trucks has reached nearly $42.5 billion, says Yole Developpement, with the robotic vehicle processor market expected to reach $1 billion in 2034, with an estimated 48% CAGR from 2023 to 2034.

The expanding robotaxi market will see a division between processors tailored for automotive use and those specifically designed for the purpose.

Robotaxis and robot trucks are dominated by the US and China, with Europe trailing behind in robot shuttles.

Essential for achieving autonomy, robotic vehicle processors demand significant computing power for instantaneous decision-making.

Initially, server/PC-grade processors were employed due to their robust computing capabilities.

However, with advancements in the automotive processor market, those tailored for ADAS /AD functions have emerged as more cost-effective and energy-efficient alternatives for robotic vehicles.

“Nvidia, an early player, introduced high-performance processors with the Parker architecture in 2016, now widely utilised in numerous robotic vehicles,” says Yole’s Adrien Sanchez, “however, competition has intensified with the development of ADAS/AD processors, gaining momentum from companies like Mobileye, Qualcomm, and Huawei. Notably, startups such as Horizon Robotic and Black Sesame provide potential solutions, particularly for Chinese companies aiming for secure domestic supply chains.”

On the architectural front, diverse solutions are emerging. Mobileye, for instance, has pioneered a scalable processor family, departing from a fully centralized architecture based on a single processor.

This approach not only reduces development costs but also provides a flexible solution tailored to the specific needs of its customers.

Simultaneously, a prevailing trend among leaders in the robotic industry involves the in-house development of custom processors to precisely address specific requirements.

“The global landscape for robotic vehicles is characterized by three key regions: the United States, China, and Europe,” says Yole’s Hugo Antoine, “in the U.S, active testing of autonomous vehicles is underway, with robotaxi services already available in a few cities, and rapid progress in the deployment of robot trucks connecting the East Coast to the West Coast,”

China has asserted itself as a frontrunner in autonomous technology, with Baidu-Apollo leading in robotaxi and shuttle services, closely followed by dynamic companies like WeRide and Pony.ai.

Europe, too, is actively involved, particularly in robot shuttle companies and testing initiatives.

The Middle East, notably the UAE and KSA, is actively participating in robotic mobility projects through strategic partnerships with European, Chinese, and American companies.

In the autonomous vehicle industry, companies focusing on robotic vehicles initially prioritise their core segments to manage costs and enhance scalability.

In December, Korea’s semiconductor factory shipments rose 113.7% y-o-y – the biggest jump in a month since 1997, according to Statistics Korea, the national statistics office.

Inventories rose by 11.6% – the smallest rise since the collapse in demand in late 2022.

Production rose 53.3% y-o-y which was the biggest monthly rise since mid-2016.

Korea supplies two-thirds of global memory production.

The  compound semiconductor substrate market is expected to reach $3.3 billion in 2029, with a 17% CAGR between 2023 and 2029, says Yole Developpement.

Substrate players consistently craft new strategies to diversify their product portfolios and enhance their market presence.

Compound semiconductor technologies showcase diverse advancements across sectors:leg. SiC , GaN , InP and. have emerged as a transformative influence across various industries.

SiC’s dominance in the automotive sector, especially in the domain of 800V EVs , drives a billion-dollar market, while GaN power electronics is expanding its presence in both the consumer and automotive fields.

Yole expects a billion-unit opportunity in smartphone OVP (Over Voltage Protection) . In anticipation of a resurgence, RF GaAs aligns itself with 5G and automotive connectivity, while RF GaN establishes its presence in defense, telecommunications, and space industries, targeting high-power applications.

Within the realm of photonics, InP and GaAs take the lead, with InP experiencing a resurgence fueled by AI applications, while GaAs photonics sees more modest growth influenced by various market dynamics. Although MicroLEDs show potential, their widespread adoption is gradual,

“The CS industry is at the corner to transition to larger diameter substrates. In the Photonics sector,” saysYole’s Ali Jaffal, “AI is driving the demand of high-data-rate lasers, which could accelerate the transition to 6” InP substrates.

On the other side of the coin, GaAs explores 8” manufacturing for microLED, which is competing with OLED, facing yield and efficiency challenges, questioning its success but gaining momentum with substantial investments.”

Suppliers of GaAs and InP substrates, including Freiberger, Sumitomo Electric, and AXT, play a central role in the transition to larger diameter substrates. Photonics is part of this story, and the Power and RF markets further complement this narrative.

Wolfspeed is leading the change to supply SiC substrates for power electronics applications. It has recently transitioned to the larger 8” wafer fabs and is expanding its material capacity in line with its strategic vision.

Coherent, another leading player, focuses on photonic devices and dominates the SiC substrate market for both power and RF applications. It has made a number of strategic alliances, for example, with SEDI in RF GaN, to reinforce its position and has started supplying power SiC devices. Following these actions, it covers the whole value chain from substrates to advanced devices.

The landscape is continuously evolving, with multiple innovations on many fronts and strategic partnerships.

“Compound semiconductor technologies are advancing across sectors, notably in the booming SiC industry “ says Yole’s Taha Ayari “while 6” wafers are still standard, Wolfspeed’s $1.2 billion investment in MHV fab is pioneering the transition to 8″ wafer size. Other efforts focus on improving SiC wafer yield and supply, with innovations like engineered substrates from Soitec and Sumitomo Mining. Power GaN sees a shift to 8-inch GaN-on-Si, driven by expansion at Innoscience, STMicroelectronics, and Infineon Technologies”.

“RF GaN-on-Si is benefiting from synergies with the relatively more mature Power GaN to enter the telecom market and compete with established RF GaN-on-SiC technology,” says Yole’s Aymen Ghorbel, additionally, major changes in the RF GaN ecosystem, such as Wolfspeed RF business being acquired by Macom, could impact the RF GaN industry”.

Hynix had a Q4 profit of $260 million on revenues up 47.4%  at $8.5 billion compared with a loss of $1.4 billion in Q4 2022.

For the full year of 2023, Hynix had a loss of $5.8 billion on revenues which fell 27% y-o-y to $24.6 billion.

“We achieved a remarkable turnaround in the fourth quarter following a protracted downturn, thanks to our technological leadership in the AI memory space,” said CFO Kim Woohyun.

Hynix is working with Nvidia on HBM memories and is about to start producing the latest iteration – HBM3E.

“We are smoothly preparing for mass production of HBM3E as demand for the chips will occur in earnest this year. We plan to supply them during the first half,” said a Hynix exec on the results call.

The RAN market is headed down, says Dell’Oro.

Following the >40%  rise between 2017 and 2021, RAN revenues stabilised in 2022, and are on target to decline sharply in 2023.

Market conditions are expected to remain challenging in 2024 as the Indian RAN market pulls back, though the pace of the global decline this year and for the remainder of the forecast period should be more moderate.

“MBB (Mobile Broadband)-based investments are now slowing and the upside with new growth areas including FWA and private wireless is still too small to change the trajectory,” says Dell’Oro vp  Stefan Pongratz, “also weighing on the MBB market is the fact that the upper mid-band capacity boost is rather significant relative to current data traffic growth rates in some markets, which could impact the timing for capacity upgrades.”.

Worldwide RAN revenues are projected to decline at a 1% CAGR over the next five years.

AsiaPac  is expected to lead the decline, while easier comparisons following steep contractions in 2023 will improve the growth prospects in the North America region.

5G-Advanced is expected to play an important role in the broader 5G journey, however, it is not expected to fuel another major capex growth cycle.

TRAN segments that are expected to grow over the next five years include: 5G NR, FWA, mmWave, Massive MIMO, Open RAN, private wireless, small cells, and Virtualized RAN.

Ericsson CEO B?rje Ekholm says the telcos’ mobile infrastructure investments are  “unsustainably low”.